A Cge Model for Labour Policy Assessment

In the less developed regions of Italy, the so-called Mezzogiorno, the level of human capital is lower compared to the advanced regions od the Centre-North. We use a Computable General Equilibrium (Cge) Model to show that an increase in the demand and supply of skilled labor in the human capital-scarce regions has a smaller impact on the production activities, the aggregate income and the investments of both North and South compared to an equivalent increase in the human capital-abundant regions. This result leads to a wrong incentive for the private agents towards the underinvestment in human capital and locks the Southern regions in a trap at a low level of both economic development and human capital accumulation. Absent suitable shocks or policy interventions, this outcome is self-reinforcing.