A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850 - 2011

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others-this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

MoreLess

Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Berge, Travis J. ; Jordà, Òscar
Published in:	SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association. - Heidelberg : Springer, ISSN 1869-4195. - Vol. 4.2013, 1, p. 1-34
Publisher:	Heidelberg : Springer
Subject:	business cycle \| correct classification frontier \| area under the curve

freely available

Full text |

More access options

doi.org

Check Google Scholar

In libraries world-wide (WorldCat)

In German libraries (KVK)

subito order

I need help

More details

Type of publication:	Article
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Article
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6 [DOI] 749935952 [GVK] hdl:10419/77798 [Handle]
Classification:	C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods ; C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317138