A Competing Risks Analysis of the Determinants of Low Completion Rates in the Canadian Apprenticeship System

In this paper, we estimate the determinants of low (and slow) completion rates with a competing risk duration model using data from the National Apprenticeship Survey (NAS) 2007. This allows us to distinguish the impact age and duration dependence on the probability of dropping out. We find older apprentices are less likely to transit toward completion after age 28. We also find duration dependence to be positive, meaning transition probabilities to completion increase with apprenticeship duration. However, the positive effect dies out quickly after 10 years of apprenticeship.