A dynamic analysis of recent changes in the rate of part-time employment

The part-time employment rate has declined since the early 1980s, especially among females. This paper examines the decline over the 1980-1990 period, with a focus on the gender differential, using gross change data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly transition rates between full-time employment, part-time employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation are estimated according to sex. Trend and cyclical analysis of the transition rates is conducted to identify the sources of part-time employment-rate trends and to explore gender differentials in them. The results suggest that the decline in the rate of part-time employment among females is not so much because unemployed females are more likely to move into full-time employment, but rather because females have become more likely to move from part-time to full-time employment and, most important, because they have become less likely to leave full-time employment once they get there.