A Dynamic Analysis of Sectoral Mobility, Worker Mismatc and the Wage-Tenure Profiles

A dynamic multi-sector model with net and excess mobility is developed to quantify the determinants of the canonical increasing wage-tenure profile. The model distinguishes between three factors: sector specific skill accumulation, sectoral-level shocks, and dynamic worker sector mismatch shocks. The sector-specific skill premium drives the observed negative correlation between lifetime earnings and mobility. Excess mobility driven by worker-sector mismatch shocks explains nearly 20 percent of the observed wage growth for recent movers. A model featuring only dynamic worker-sector mismatch shocks still captures the salient features of the wage-tenure profile. Sectoral-level shocks have a negligible impact on the wage-tenure profile and excess mobility