A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts
Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014
Year of publication: |
2014
|
---|---|
Authors: | Refsgaard, J. ; Madsen, H. ; Andréassian, V. ; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. ; Davidson, T. ; Drews, M. ; Hamilton, D. ; Jeppesen, E. ; Kjellström, E. ; Olesen, J. ; Sonnenborg, T. ; Trolle, D. ; Willems, P. ; Christensen, J. |
Published in: |
Climatic Change. - Springer. - Vol. 122.2014, 1, p. 271-282
|
Publisher: |
Springer |
Saved in:
Online Resource
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example
Refsgaard, J., (2013)
-
Gender as a determinant of small business performance: insights from a British study
Rosa, P., (1996)
-
Education and Development : sector study 1979
Hamilton, D., (1981)
- More ...