A history of econometrics in France : from nature to models

XX, 296 S.

graph. Darst.

Routledge studies in the history of economics. - London : Routledge, ISSN 1359-7957, ZDB-ID 2204372-X. - Vol. 85

Includes bibliographical references and index

Foreword / by Mary S. Morgan -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction: unifying econometrics -- An investigation into nineteenth century French "political economies" -- "Natural econometrics" in context: isolated econometricians in a unified world -- The methodology of natural econometrics -- The "Unity of orchestration" in uncertainty -- The outline of the book -- Natural econometrics and the "system of the world" -- The secrets of the beehive: Cournot's "law of sales" as natural econometrics -- The "law of sales": optimizing the return of the "commercial machinery" -- Economics and the large numbers -- The market in a "very advanced state of civilization" -- The construction of the "law of sales" -- The search for "less sterile principles" -- A mathematical law -- A case of statistical thinking: the inference of the "law of sales" from observed averages -- The search for the price maximizing wealth -- The validation of the "law of sales": Cournot's "philosophical probability" -- "Philosophical probability" -- The simplicity of laws -- "Induction": the empirical investigation -- Analogical thinking -- Cournot's worldview -- Causality and chance -- The "end of history": why economics becomes "social physics" -- "The hand of God" -- The foundations of Cournot's worldview -- Conclusion -- The formation of agricultural prices, economic cycles, and natural order: Briaune's social meteorology -- The economy as a body: Briaune's search for causal chains -- Causalities in the ""ocial body -- Agricultural prices and the economic environment -- On the use of statistics and mathematics -- Observation: "extracting facts from their obscurity" -- Briaune's use of statistical instruments and mathematics -- The "law of proportionality" -- The relation between price and supplying -- The test of the law -- The lasting of the reserve: on "auctions" and "double proportionality" -- The law of "double proportionality" -- The test of the law of "double proportionality" -- A question of atmosphere: Briaune"s "social meteorology" -- The weather influence -- The Bible of econometricians -- Fourteen-year agricultural cycles -- Forecasting and economic policy -- Back to the postulates of natural econometrics -- Conclusion -- Natural laws on the stock market: Regnault"s "financial physics" -- Into the "temple of modern society": a first approach of Regnault's agenda, instruments, and worldview -- Regnault's worldview: determinism, unity, and God's design -- An orderly world -- Analogies, transfers, and reductionism: Regnault's unified world -- Instruments for exploring the social world: Regnault's use of statistics and mathematics -- Observation, averages, and time-series analysis -- From observation and statistics to mathematical laws -- Short-term speculation: the random walk as a trompe-l'Oeil -- The random walk -- Information and price movements -- The "law of deviations" -- The test of the theoretical results -- On ruin: transaction costs as the visible hand of God -- Risks, costs, and inequalities -- The "invisible enemy" and the "law of ruin" -- From vices to virtues: on long-term speculation -- The search for constant causes -- The determination of the mean price -- Coupon payment and seasonal effects -- The discovery of "attraction centers" -- The "law of attraction" -- Science as a means to reach the "end of history" -- Conclusion -- The rise of twentieth century econometrics and the

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