A 'Long March' Perspective on Tobacco Use in Canada

In this paper we present a model of tobacco demand in Canada, with a view to establishing if price and tax policy on the one hand or educational, regulatory, and demographic influences on the other have been primarily responsible for the substantial drop in consumption since 1980. We address some methodological and econometric issues that have escaped the attention of some analysts to this point. Using data for the period 1972-2000, we find that non-price developments have had a strong deterrent effect and that the price elasticity of demand is now lower than even the recently obtained low estimates propose. These findings have strong public policy content