A Longitudinal Analysis of Earnings Change in Canada

We use tax-based longitudinal microdata for 1982-99 to (i) examine how earnings distributions have shifted, (ii) identify changes in earnings mobility patterns, and (iii) replicate and update Beaudry and Green's cohort analysis of age-earnings profiles. We find: (i) increased polarization of men's earnings and marked decline in real earnings of workers aged 20-4; (ii) general decline in men's earnings mobility, while women's mobility has increased for young and prime-age workers; and (iii) upward drift in earnings profiles of 1960s-1970s entry cohorts and downward shifts for 1980s-1990s cohorts (largely confirming Beaudry and Green's findings), but suggestive of steepening profiles for the 1990s cohorts