A Macroeconometric Model for Kazakhstan

The paper builds a structural macroeconometric model for Kazakhstan to generate short-term and medium-term forecasts for main macroeconomic variables and conduct scenario analyses based on dynamic simulation of the model. Due to the poor quality of quarterly data on GDP and its expenditure components, they have been adjusted using volume indexes. The model consists of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, labor market, asset market, the central bank policy and government side equations. Most equations are estimated via econometric techniques and identities are explicitly introduced in line with economic theory. We combine all the regression equations into a single model and solve for the baseline scenario from 2003 to 2017. The simulation results show that the structural macroeconometric model approximates Kazakhstani economy reasonably well. Ex-ante forecasts under oil prices remaining around 50 and 60 US dollars per barrel are generated and compared with the baseline forecast of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan