A Microsimulation Approach to an Optimal Swedish Income Tax

The purpose of this paper is to identify a Swedish tax/benefit design that maximizes social welfare. A two stage process is proposed where individuals’ preferred choice of leisure and consumption is solved in the first stage, and the second stage identifies the tax/benefit system that maximizes the social welfare function. The study deviates from the mainstream literature as the first stage is based on a micro simulation model with estimated behavioural responses. We estimate a structural model for a sample of workers or voluntary non-workers that describes heterogeneity in consumption-leisure preferences for different household types. Models that describe the participation decision for the unemployed as well as individuals outside the labour force are also included. The results suggest that increased housing allowance, basic deduction, and in-work tax credit in combination with a reduction of the progressive national taxes would increase welfare.