A Scenario-Driven Risk Allocation Modeling for Transport Infrastructure PPP Projects

Effective risk allocation is crucial for the success of transport infrastructure public-private partnership (PPP) projects. However, the inherent features of multiple entities, multiple tasks, and dynamicity make it highly challenging to obtain a risk allocation solution. This study aims to develop a scenario-driven modeling methodology for dynamic project risk allocation with multi-entity involvement and multi-task whole-coverage. First, a resolution framework for the scenario-driven risk allocation modeling is designed, in which risk identification and scenario assumptions are elaborated, and a four-stage resolution framework is constructed to fit the complex dynamic scenario. Subsequently, a multistage dynamic tripartite model is proposed based on rule definition, algorithm design, Shapley method extension, and visualized matrix construction. Furthermore, a case study is conducted to verify the applicability of the proposed model. It indicates that the obtained risk allocation solution is beneficial for entities to clarify their respective undertaken risks and specific allocation proportions at any time. This study provides an effective problem-solving methodology for risk allocation based on a comprehensive scenario with multi-feature consideration, a clear framework with whole-process guidance, an efficient model with quick response and visualized presentation, and a beneficial application attempt with reference implications