A Simulated Test Marketing Model for Emerging Markets : Key Principles

The majority of popular simulated test marketing models (STM) are calibrated against empirical data obtained from the mature markets of North America and Western Europe. Not surprisingly, these models achieve much lower accuracy when directly applied in relatively unexplored emerging markets, such as Russia, where no historical data are available for calibration. This paper presents a ‘self-calibrated’ STM approach, theoretically applicable for use in emerging markets. The model incorporates the most advanced, academically rigorous and practically validated techniques of forecasting buying behavior, such as Assessor and NBD-Dirichlet