A spatial and sectoral analysis of firm demography in Italy

This paper looks at spatial and sectoral effects on firm entry and exit in Italian NUTS-3 regions, over the period 2004-2009. We use a new version of spatial shift-share decomposition which looks more effectively at the neighbourhood influence, beyond traditionally looking at national, industrial mix and regional-shift components. We separately analyse the sub-periods 2004-2007 and 2007-2009, in order to take into account the 2007 crisis. Results seem to be substantially divergent between the Southern regions, i.e. the poorest areas, and the rest of Italy. The firm demography seems to manifest higher instability over time, i.e. more entries but also more exits, in the Southern regions and this is associated with the presence of industrial mix disadvantage. On other hand, the firm demography is more stable, i.e. less entries but also less exits, in the rest of Italy and this reflects an industrial mix advantage. Such results seems to be widespread within the two macro-areas as the analysis of neighbourhood influence points out. externalities.