A spatial-temporal analysis of civil war: The case of Nepal.

The study models the spread of Nepal’s civil war across geography and over time. The potential effects of poverty, geography, caste, and prewar election outcomes on the spread and intensity of war-violence is examined, using data from the 1996 to 2006 Nepalese-Maoist civil war. Results suggest, first, that proximity to war-affected area is the key determinant of whether or not war spreads to another area and, second, that the intensity of violence increases as time elapses. Once proximity to areas already affected by war is accounted for, socioeconomic conditions related to poverty and geography are statistically insignificant in explaining either the spread of war or its escalation in intensity.