A Study of the Efficiency and Unbiasedness in NCDEX : A Case Study of Guar Gum

The paper aims to study the market efficiency, unbiasedness among Guar gum futures contracts traded at National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX). The study has tested the market efficiency and unbiasedness with different maturities using cointegration analysis, and short-term market efficiency, using an error correction model and GARCH-M-ECM. The results suggest that futures market for guar gum is inefficient, which may be caused by over-speculation or market manipulation. The results indicate an urgent need to provide more powers to FMC to regulate the market and penalize any insider trading, cartelization and price manipulations