A Study on the Correlation between International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Cycle Measure and Economic Cycle Fluctuation
It is very important to grasp the law of the oil price fluctuation to forecast the trend of the oil price. In this paper, three methods are used to measure the oil price fluctuation and excavate the periodicity structure and abnormal change rule of the time series of the oil price in different time scales. WA method shows that the main cycle of the oil price fluctuation is 6 years, BP method shows that the average fluctuation cycle is 6.2 years, and HP method shows that the main cycle is 6.3 years. Comprehensive comparison shows that the main cycle of the oil price fluctuation is 6 to 7 years, and it is about 1 to 2 years ahead of the economic fluctuation cycle, and there is a big mutation point after 32 years. We consider that the oil price fluctuation is composed of the long wave with a cycle length of 30 to 40 years and the medium wave with a cycle length of 6 to 7 years. We point out that the main causes of long and medium wave of the oil price fluctuation are the world's major economic transition and normal cyclical economic fluctuation respectively
Year of publication: |
[2022]
|
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Authors: | NAN, YU ; Sun, Renjin ; Yu, Nan |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
Subject: | Ölpreis | Oil price | Konjunktur | Business cycle | Welt | World | Volatilität | Volatility | Korrelation | Correlation |
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