A Systems Approach to Modeling Catastrophic Risk and Insurability

This paper describes a spatial-dynamic,stochastic optimization model that takes account ofthe complexities and dependencies of catastrophicrisks. Following a description of the general model,the paper briefly discusses a case study of earthquakerisk in the Irkutsk region of Russia. For this purposethe risk management model is customized to explicitlyincorporate the geological characteristics of theregion, as well as the seismic hazards and thevulnerability of the built environment. In its generalform, the model can analyze the interplay betweeninvestment in mitigation and risk-sharing measures. Inthe application described in this paper, the modelgenerates insurance strategies that are lessvulnerable to insolvency. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000