Academic Performance and the Great Recession

In this paper we study how the Great Recession affected university students in terms of performance, with a focus on the drop-out probability. To do so, we use individual-level data on a representative sample of university students in Italy in 2007 and 2011. We measure the severity of the recession in terms of increases in the adult and youth unemployment rates and we exploit geographical variation to achieve identification. On the one hand, an increase in the adult male unemployment rate worsens the financial condition of the family, raising the drop-out probability. On the other hand, by reducing the opportunity cost of tertiary education, an increase in the youth unemployment rate reduces the drop-out probability. Focusing on students who were enrolled at university before the Recession we are able to study the effects of the crisis on performance net of any potential effect on enrolment. We find evidence that overall, university drop-out decreased as a result of the Recession and that the probability of graduating on time increased for more motivated students