Advancing the Necessary Foundations for Empirical Energy Rebound Estimates : A Partial Equilibrium Analysis Framework

Widespread implementation of energy efficiency is a key greenhouse gas emissions mitigation measure, but rebound can “take back” energy savings. However, conceptual foundations lag behind empirical estimates of the size of rebound. We posit that development of solid analytical frameworks for rebound is hampered by the interdisciplinary nature of the topic, involving both economics and energy analysis. In this paper, we help advance a rigorous analytical framework that starts at the microeconomics of rebound and is approachable for both energy analysts and economists. We include emplacement, substitution, and income rebound effects and link them to macro rebound. Novel graphs show rebound paths through energy, expenditure, and consumption spaces. Application of the framework provides estimates of total rebound in two case studies: upgrades of a car (48%) and an electric lamp (80%). Sensitivities are evaluated, and implications for common policies are considered