Age Patterns and Trends in Mortality by Cause of Death and Implications for Modeling Longevity Risk

Mortality rates have shown significant improvements in countries around the world over a lengthy period. Trends have varied by country and by age, despite common improvements. An analysis of changes in causes of death provides a better understanding of the underlying changes in mortality rates and provides information about potential future improvements. This paper provides an analysis of mortality rate age patterns and trends for the main causes of death (circulatory system, cancer, respiratory system, accidents, infectious diseases) for nine major countries (USA, Australia, Switzerland, Japan, Singapore, Italy, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom) over approximately the last 50 years. The pattern by age and the trends in mortality rates differ significantly by cause. Mortality rates from diseases of the circulatory system have decreased over the last 50 years, while mortality rates due to cancer have shown some decreases for younger ages although they have increased at the older ages. Death rates from external causes have generally decreased especially at the young ages although not for all countries. It is unlikely that the trends in circulatory death rates will continue and the importance and uncertainty of future changes in cancer death rates are critical to any longevity risk model