Ageing and changes in medical practices : reassessing theinfluence of demography

On the basis of French individual data, this paper compares the effect of demographic change, changes in morbidity and changes in practices on the growth in health expenditures that occurred between 1992 and 2000. Microsimulations show that the rise in expenditures due to aging is relatively small and that the impact of changes in practices is 3.8 times larger. Furthermore, changes in morbidity induce savings which more that offset the increase in spending due to the population aging.