AIDS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA

Morbidity and mortality effects are introduced into a three sector, Ramsey-type model of economic growth. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. Simulation results suggest a 10% decrease in the size of the effective labor force would lead to a 10% decrease in the long run (steady state) GDP levels. Similarly, a 10% decrease in the number of laborers would lead to an 11% drop in long run GDP.