America's deadly export: Evidence from cross-country panel data of deportation and homicide rates

Changes in US Immigration laws between the mid-1980s to the late 1990s led to a sharp increase in criminal deportations. During the same years many poor countries, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, experienced a sharp increase in homicides. Using panel data for a sample of 38 developed and developing countries, I find a statistically significantly positive relationship between an increase in the number of criminal deportees received by a country and a corresponding increase in that country's homicide rate, and I establish causality through instrumental variables. My analysis suggests that about 23 percent of the increase in the homicide rate in developing countries between 1985 and 1996 can be attributed to the increase in the inflow of criminal deportees from the United States.