An analysis of the Lowest Total Fertility Rate in Hong Kong SAR

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Hong Kong has dropped significantly over the past 30 years, from 2.48 births per woman in 1976 to 0.966 in 2005, which is one of the lowest in the world. It is mainly caused by the change of marital distribution which has contributed to about 56% of the decline in the total fertility rate for the period 1976-2001. Delay of marriage and reduction in the marital fertility rate have also been shown to be two major causes for the low TFR. A new measure, called a weighted total marital fertility rate (WTMFR), is introduced such that change of age at marriage and the fertility within marriage can be factored in explaining the decline of the fertility rate. The delay of marriage has contributed to about 52% of the reduction of WTMFR whereas the reduction of the fertility within marriage has accounted for the other 48%. Apparently, the proportion of women remaining single has been stabilized and leveled off recently. However, the preference of having smaller family size has become a norm rather than an exception. It is very unlikely to see a rebound of fertility among the Hong Kong women in the near future if there is no increase in marriages or births outside wedlock. Encouraging more births among married women so as to increase fertility is expected to have limited impact.