An Analytical Study of Performance and Regional Variations in Indian Agriculture in the Post-Green Revolution Period

The paper presents the results of an analysis of all-India and state level data on area, production and yield of major crops in the post-green revolution period. It reveals that there was a marked acceleration in the overall growth of agricultural production in India during the eighties as compared with the seventies. Improvement in foodgrains production was mainly because of improvement in crop yield, whereas, in case on non-foodgrains both area and yield increases were witnessed. Furthermore, agricultural growth has become regionally much more diversified. During the early phase of Green Revolution, the impact of new technology in transforming traditional agriculture was by and large confined to the north-western part of the country. The period of eighties marked a major departure from the earlier trend. The growth of agricultural production not only accelerated during this period but also spread to eastern region which had hitherto been left out. The period of eighties was also characterised by important cropping pattern shifts away from low value coarse cereals towards oilseeds and other commercial crops. However, during nineties there was a deceleration in overall growth performance of agriculture as compared with the eighties. This raises the question, whether India would be able to achieve 4.5 per cent growth rate in agriculture during the Ninth Five Year Plan, as proposed in the Approach Paper to the Plan. The study also brings out that levels and growth of land productivity and of output at all-India and state levels, are positively associated with the use of modern inputs like fertilisers, are under irrigation and HYV seeds. The results of the study clearly indicate programmes and policies to promote agricultural growth should primarily focus on problems and prospects of the eastern region of the country. Further the growth performance of agriculture in the nineties indicates that the target of 4.5 per cent growth rate proposed for agriculture seems difficult to achieve unless policies and programmes for broadening the base of agricultural growth are strengthened. In this context, role of physical and infrastructure facilities such as rural roads, irrigation and other inputs, better extension services, input delivery system, marketing facilities, watershed management for the development of agriculture and rural sector needs to be strengthened.