An Assessment of Industrial Cogeneration Potential in Pennsylvania

This paper summarizes the study, Assessment of Industrial Cogeneration in Pennsylvania, performed by Synergic Resources Corporation for the Pennsylvania Governor's Energy Council. The study could well be the most comprehensive statewide evaluation of industrial cogeneration yet conducted. Although a multitude of estimates of cogeneration potential have surfaced in recent years, this study examined cogeneration opportunities in much greater detail for the following factors: 1. Sales of cogenerated electricity to all major utilities were valued using the estimated PURPA rates based on the Public Utility Commission rules. The demonstrated effects of the wide variation of expected PURPA utility purchase rates on industry-specific economical cogeneration potential further underscores the significance of these rates; 2. Industrial energy consumption (including the use of feedstocks and internally generated fuels) reflected the most accurate data available at both the state and national levels; 3. Pennsylvania-specific forecasts of industrial growth for each major manufacturing industry were incorporated; 4. Forecasts of fuel and electricity price changes were also state-specific rather than national or regional; 5. Discounted cash flow economic analyses were performed for cases in which existing combustion systems both did and did not require replacement as well as for expansions of existing industrial plants and new plants for the years 1985, 1990, and 2000; 6. Emerging technologies such as atmospheric fluidized bed combustion, coal-gasification combined cycles, fuel cells and bottoming cycles were analyzed in addition to the economic assessment of conventional cogeneration systems; Industry-specific rates of market penetration were developed and applied to determine likely levels of market penetration; 7. Sensitivity of cogeneration feasibility with respect to alternative; 8. Ownership and financing arrangements (such as utility and third party ownership) as well as changes in forecasts of PURPA and retail electricity rates, fuel prices, industrial growth rates, and cogeneration technology capital costs and operating characteristics were examined; 9. To more accurately assess the potential for additional cogeneration development, a detailed survey was conducted identifying all existing cogenerators in Pennsylvania; 10. Case study economic analyses were performed for 30 companies to further illustrate cogeneration feasibility; and 11. Barriers to and opportunities for greater industrial cogeneration were identified and a booklet to market cogeneration to industry was developed.