An Econometric Model of Wildfire Suppression Productivity

We estimate a model of suppression productivity for individual fires, where suppression productivity is measured in terms of the reduction in the estimated market value of wildfire losses. Estimation results show that at the margin, every dollar increase in suppression costs reduces resource damage by 12 cents, while each dollar invested in pre-suppression reduces suppression expenditures by 3.76 dollars. These results suggest that there is an over-allocation of fire management funds to suppression activities relative to prevention measures in terms of cost-effectiveness. This paper provides an empirical basis for a widely used economic model of wildfire management that seeks to minimize the sum of suppression costs and economic losses from wildfires, the cost plus net value change model of fire suppression (C+NVC).