An Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Multi-Dimensional Urban Sprawl

This paper applies a simultaneous equation model to examine the impact of a variety of factors on four dimensions of urban sprawl: spatial size, sprawl index, and daily vehicle miles traveled per capita. The regression results indicate that the transportation cost has a negative impact on urban sprawl in terms of spatial size, land consumption per capita and daily VMT. The impact of household income on spatial size, land consumption per capita and daily vehicle miles traveled per capita are U-shaped. The impact of number of household is mixed: it has a positive impact on spatial size and daily VMT, but a negative impact on land consumption per capita. Urban growth boundary has a negative and statistically significant impact while minimum lot size has a positive impact on two dimensions of urban sprawl (spatial size and land consumption per capita). Regression results also indicate that among the variables that capture the political, social and geographic characteristics of an area, the amount of intergovernmental transfers as a percentage of local revenue has a positive and statistically impact on all four dimensions of urban sprawl while the percentage of urban fringe area overlying aquifers has such an impact on three dimensions (spatial size of an area, sprawl index, and land consumption per capita). The violent crime rate in the central cities has a positive and statistically significant impact on two dimensions of urban sprawl (spatial size and land consumption per capita).