An empirical analysis of limited recourse project

Our study extends on conventional measures of contagion by directly investigating changes in the existence and the directions of causality. In particular, we apply a Granger-causality methodology on sovereign bond spreads as a measure of perceived country risk. For the Asian crisis, we find evidence for new and changed causality patterns on a regional level. With the arrival of the Russian crisis, causality patterns were changing not only on a regional but also on a global level.