An Empirical Analysis of the Black Market Exchange Rate in Iran

The Iranian rial has been depreciated on average about 13 per cent per annum against the U.S. dollar during the last four decades. This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the black market exchange rate employing the cointegration techniques and the annual time series data from 1960 to 2002. Consistent with previous studies and the monetary approach to the exchange-rate determination, it is found that the black market exchange rate is cointegrated with the relative consumer price indices in Iran and the U.S., real GDP and the relative import prices. However, in the short run only the rising relative prices and a meagre real GDP growth have been responsible for the depreciation of Iranian currency