A comparison of energy-growth projections from the 1970s and 1980s with subsequent growth history shows that usual forecasting methods have been unsatisfactory. By examining national energy growth data over a longer historical period, a growth pattern is suggested that accounts for apparent periodic anomalies. By superimposing a long growth wave on an underlying secular growth, the apparent anomalies can be removed, thereby making energy forecasting and energy-policy planning more plausible.
