An Examination of Within-Match Sports Betting in Tennis Matches
In this paper the probability of a player winning a tennis match is modelled, with the probability being updated on a point-by-point basis throughout the duration of the match. This modelled probability of winning the match is then compared on a point-by-point basis with the implied probability of winning the match as provided by the betting odds that are also updated after each point. This methodology enables an examination of the ability of betting market prices to incorporate complex information such as the differential importance of the various points within games, and the impact of significant events within the match such as service breaks. The results for both men's and women's matches suggest a high level of efficiency in the betting market. The significance of service breaks is anticipated up to four points prior to the point in which the break of service occurs. However, betting odds do not incorporate all information provided by service breaks. Specifically, the tendency of players to lose a greater percentage of first points after conceding a break of service than points lost on average while receiving is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. Instead, the betting odds appear to display a mechanistic response to the outcome of the point. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to the information provided by a player winning a game on service
Year of publication: |
2008
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Authors: | Uylangco, Katherine ; Easton, Stephen Andrew |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
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