An Input‒Output Analysis of the Economic Impact of a Guarantee Scheme : Evidence from Spain

Our paper uses data from a Spanish regional mutual guarantee society (MGS) to analyze the macroeconomic impact of its activity during 2019 and 2020. By using an input‒output (IO) model, we find that for each euro lent thanks to the guarantee system, more than one euro of output is generated within the Spanish economy (output multipliers are 1.36). As expected, the gross domestic product (GDP) effects are also sizeable but smaller than the output effects (0.91). Our model also estimates that the activity of the regional guarantee company supported 4,011 and 6,377 full-time equivalent jobs in 2019 and 2020, respectively