ANALYSIS OF U.S. WHEAT MARKET SHARES IN EAST ASIA

The effects of U.S. wheat prices, dollar values, and their volatilities on U.S. wheat market shares in 10 Asian countries are analyzed. The variables are converted to a relative form comparing the U.S. against Australian and Canadian variables in order to incorporate the effects of competition among these countries. The effects of the increased loan rates and target prices in the early 1980s and the U.S. export enhancement program (EEP) are also analyzed. Estimation results show that higher U.S. wheat prices and U.S. dollar appreciation have detrimental effects, while increases in competitors? wheat prices and currency values have cross positive effects on U.S. market shares. The importers are not sensitive to volatility in annual price and exchange rate changes. Dummy variables representing the domestic farm and trade policies are not statistically significant, implying that the two variables do not have a substantial effect on U.S. wheat export performance in the markets.