Analysis of West German Macroeconomic Data Using Common Trends and Common Cycles / Eine Analyse westdeutscher Makrodaten anhand gemeinsamer Trends und gemeinsamer Zyklen
Summary This paper is intended to explore a new way of analyzing macroeconomic datasets. For a dataset of twenty-one West German variables a common-trends-common-cycle representation is aimed at which allows for a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of the data. However, standard F-tests reveal that the number of linearly independent cointegrating vectors plus the number of linearly independent serial correlation cofeature vectors do not add up to the dimension of the system. A slightly weaker notion of cofeature is used to derive an approximate trend-cycle decomposition. For most of the variables, this approximation seems to work quite well. Analysis of the cyclical components indicates that interest rates are procyclical with a lead and anticyclical with a lag. The real wage is at most very weakly procyclical and definitely not anticyclical, while the price level is procyclical.
Year of publication: |
1995
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Authors: | Lücke, Bernd |
Published in: |
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. - Lucius & Lucius, ISSN 2366-049X, ZDB-ID 2416178-0. - Vol. 214.1995, 6, p. 675-696
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Publisher: |
Lucius & Lucius |
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