Another Inconvenient Truth : A Carbon-Intensive South Faces Environmental Disaster, No Matter What the North Does

This paper critically examines a view of global warming that is common among developing countries (the South) and many in the development community: Developed countries (the North) caused climate change, the North should address the problem by dramatically reducing its own carbon emissions, and the South should be left free to develop along a carbon-intensive path until it is much richer. Our results indicate that this view cannot withstand empirical scrutiny and is, in fact, dangerous for the South itself. The South's cumulative carbon emissions are already large enough to jeopardize climatic stability and its own future growth, regardless of Northern emissions. By implication, a fossil-fueled South will undermine its own development long before it reaches Northern income levels. Sustainable development will therefore require a dramatic shift toward clean energy in the South, beginning immediately, as well as rapid reduction of Northern emissions