Applied nonlinear dynamical system in social science. A nonlinear model for social control system: an application to Italian coercion system

Does an increase in police strength discourage an increase in crime levels? It would seem very likely so, despite the many platitudes common everywhere, even in the most serious literature on the subject. This research study, using Non-Linear Analysis on the Italian crime situation from 1985 to 2003, shows an almost non controvertible result. The police force really does seem to have a deterrence function on crime, particularly evident from the 90s on, where, as police strength increases, the number of crimes decrease. One of the most interesting aspects deriving from the non-linear model used, is the specific measurement of the number of crimes that might have been committed and that were not in virtue of the deterrent action of the Police Force. Up to now, such an acquisition seems to be lacking from other so called ‘traditional’ research, where such ‘indirect’ deterrence appears easily hypothesized, but impossible to determine. For this reason too, the adoption of a non-linear analysis logic shows its heuristic superiority able to shed light on certain aspects that in other analysis models would remain in the shadows. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013