Are financial crashes predictable?

We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.

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Year of publication:	1998-04
Authors:	Laloux, Laurent ; Cont, Rama ; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre ; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe
Institutions:	Science & Finance

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Series:	Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	Published in Europhysics Letters 45(1), 1-5 (1999) Number 9804111
Classification:	G1 - General Financial Markets
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005017967