ARE THE ODDS ODD? POSITIVE RETURN EVIDENCE IN GERMAN HORSE RACE BETTING
The article deals with the question, if odds derived from the behavior of bettors in a pari-mutuel setting really reflect the chances of winning for a particular horse in a particular race. Using a unique data set with more than 46,000 race observations from Germany for the years 2001 to 2003 the paper presents evidence on the favorite long-shot bias, evaluates the predictive power of totalizator odds, uses a binary logistic regression model to predict probabilities of winning and finally suggests three wagering strategies that actually yield positive returns in a hold-out oriented analytical setting.
Year of publication: |
2013
|
---|---|
Authors: | Hoff, Philipp Heinrich |
Published in: |
Journal of Gambling Business and Economics. - University of Buckingham Press, ISSN 1751-7990. - Vol. 7.2013, 2, p. 19-32
|
Publisher: |
University of Buckingham Press |
Subject: | asymmetric information | binary logistic regression |
Saved in:
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