Are there any ‘hot’ spots and ‘bright’ spots of rice water productivity in Bangladesh? A spatio-temporal analysis of district-level data

Employing Bangladeshi district-level time series data as an empirical exploration this paper aims to: (1) estimate two measures of rice water productivity for the main crop seasons; (2) undertake a spatio-temporal analysis; and (3) identify ‘hot’ spots and ‘bright’ spots focusing on the Ganges-dependent (GDA) vis-à-vis other districts (NGDA). The paper finds that (1) kharif (wet) season rice water productivity grew much faster than for the rabi (dry) season across all districts. There was no significant correlation between seasonal growth rates although significant correlation existed between seasonal growth rates and the annual growth rate. Eight Ganges dependent districts experienced faster growth rate in kharif and overall productivity but their rabi season performance was slower relative to other districts. (2) Marginal productivity (MP) experienced fastest growth for the kharif season during 1968-1980. Up to 1990, there was no significant growth in rabi MP. Its growth declined in the 1980s but picked up since the early 1990s. (3) MPs products were slightly lower in the GDA districts for kharif and overall. The study did not find any consistent ‘hot’ spots or ‘bright’ spots in Bangladeshi rice water productivity. The process is highly groundwater intensive and is debatable whether it is sustainable.