Are We Finally Winning the War on Cancer?

President Nixon declared what came to be known as the "war on cancer" in 1971 in his State of the Union address. At first the war on cancer went poorly: despite a substantial increase in resources, age-adjusted cancer mortality increased by 8 percent between 1971 and 1990, twice the increase from 1950 through 1971. However, between 1990 and 2004, age-adjusted cancer mortality fell by 13 percent. This drop translates into an increase in life expectancy at birth of half a year--roughly a quarter of the two-year increase in life expectancy over this time period and a third of the increase in life expectancy at age 45. The decline brings cancer mortality to its lowest level in 60 years. In the war on cancer, optimism has replaced pessimism. In this paper, I evaluate the reasons for the reduction in cancer mortality. I highlight three factors as leading to improved survival. Most important is <i>cancer screening</i>: mammography for breast cancer and colonoscopy for colorectal cancer. These technologies have had the largest impact on survival, at relatively moderate cost. Second in importance are <i>personal behaviors</i>, especially the reduction in smoking. Tobacco-related mortality reduction is among the major factors associated with better health, likely at a cost worth paying. Third in importance, and more controversial, are <i>treatment changes</i>. Improvements in surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy have contributed to improved survival for a number of cancers, but at high cost. The major challenge for cancer care in the future is likely to be the balancing act between what we are able to do and what it makes sense to pay for.