Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming

An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.

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Year of publication:	1984
Authors:	Kluyver, Cornelis A. De ; Moskowitz, Herbert
Published in:	Management Science. - Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences - INFORMS, ISSN 0025-1909. - Vol. 30.1984, 3, p. 273-278
Publisher:	Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences - INFORMS
Subject:	probability assessment \| interactive goal programming \| scenario analysis \| decision theory

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Other identifiers:	10.1287/mnsc.30.3.273 [DOI]
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208754