Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsentwicklung auf das wirtschaftliche Niveau der Regionen in Deutschland

This paper examines the impact of demographic change on production today and in 2020. For the estimation a translog production function is used. The results show a mostly divergent development. It is shown that there is a strong centre-periphery disparity. Taking the population in 2020 into account the result is confirmed with an east-west disparity between peripheral regions in East Germany and urban regions in West Germany. Further there is also a north-south disparity detected because there is a higher increase of the factor labour in southern regions than in the other ones. Generally the cities have a greater benefit from immigration than the peripheral regions. They are confronted with a tendency of shrinkage. The conflict of growth and allocation arises from the point of view of economic policy.