Avaliação econômica comparativa de sistemas de produção de gado de corte sob condições de risco no Mato Grosso do Sul

The present work aimed to analyze the economical efficiency and the risk associated with three different cattle production systems (Cow-calf, Rearing and Finishing) in the Alto Pantanal (MS) Area. For that, the economical efficiency of each system was assessed and then the Monte Carlo risk simulation method was performed. The deterministic analysis showed that the Rearing system was the most profitable while the Finishing system presented the worst profit result. The Cow-calf system obtained an intermediate profit result. The risk economical analysis revealed the Cow-calf system as the lower risky system. On the other hand, the Finishing system showed the higher risk, presenting 28,7% of probability to obtain negative profit. The Rearing system showed the better level of profits (R$/ha) follow by Finishing and Cow-calf system. Considering the risk and profitable aspects, the results suggest that farmers who develop the three systems together (full cycle) would be adopting a kind of business that would provide more risk stability and intermediary gains.