Beyond Tariffs : How did China’s State–Owned Enterprises Shape the US–China Trade War?

We study the impact of the 2018-2019 trade war between the US and China on US exports, focusing on the role played by a set of overlooked institutional features that characterize the bilateral trade relationship. Our main emphasis is on Chinese state--owned firms. Based on measures constructed from Chinese firm--level customs microdata, we show that the presence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Chinese imports led to a large negative impact on US exports in addition to the effect of tariffs. Abstracting from general equilibrium effects, while tariffs account for a 9% decline in US exports to China, the SOE effect accounts for a 6% decline. This effect was concentrated in the last several months of 2018, point at which a vast majority of products had been already targeted by tariffs. This SOE effect was concentrated among agricultural goods, industrial supplies, and among industries located in US regions with a high share of republican votes. We also find that US exports were rerouted to the rest of the world in response to Chinese tariffs, but not in response to reduced imports by Chinese SOEs. Finally, we examine other institutional features, and show that the prominence of related--party trade and China's processing trade customs regime in certain products led to a substantially milder impact of Chinese tariffs on US exports