Brexit Trade Impacts' and Mercosur's Negotiations with Europe

We estimate that a hard Brexit would reduce UK agro industrial imports from the EU by 50%. The UK Government has proposed to substitute the Common Agricultural Policy with market-oriented policies. It has also expressed interest in signing free trade agreements with interested countries and is already moving in this direction. Assuming Mercosur considers this option, then it would face two negotiations in Europe: with the EU and with the UK. How should it allocate its scarce negotiating resources and where should its political capital be put in the near future? For a number of reasons discussed in the text we argue that: i) negotiations with the EU are unlikely to deliver market access much in excess of what it has offered so far; ii) unlike these negotiations that have dragged for around twenty years, there are circumstances indicating that an FTA with the UK could be completed in a relatively short period and, iii) failing Mercosur to give these talks priority, other countries are more than likely to fill the UK import gap triggered by Brexit. We offer back-of-the-envelope estimates indicating that under such an FTA, Mercosur could triple its meat exports and double its agro-industrial exports to the UK