Budget and Economic Outlook : Fiscal Years 2008 To 2018

Contents -- Summary -- The Budget Outlook -- Baseline Projections for the 2009-2018 Period -- Changes in the Baseline Budget Outlook Since August -- The Economic Outlook -- Chapter 1: The Budget Outlook -- A Review of 2007 -- The Concept Behind CBO's Baseline Projections -- CBO's Baseline Projections for 2008 to 2018 -- Outlays -- Revenues -- Debt Held by the Public -- Changes in CBO's Baseline Since August 2007 -- Uncertainty and Budget Projections -- Uncertainty of Future Legislative Actions -- Other Sources of Uncertainty -- Federal Debt Held by the Public -- The Long-Term Budget Outlook -- Chapter 2: The Economic Outlook -- The Threat to the Economy From the Turmoil in the Financial Markets -- Problems in Subprime Mortgage Markets -- Spillovers Into Other Financial Markets -- Federal Reserve Actions and Interest Rates -- How the U.S. Subprime-Related Turmoil Has Affected Other Countries -- The Prospect of Slow Economic Growth in the Near Term -- Continued Weakness in the Housing Sector -- A Slowdown in Consumer Spending -- Strengthening of Net Exports -- Steady Growth Projected in Government Purchases -- The Persistent Risk of Higher Inflation -- Indicators of Moderate Inflation: Measures of Resource Constraints and Rents -- Risks of Higher Inflation: Commodity Prices and the Falling Dollar -- The Outlook Through 2018 -- Potential Output -- Inflation, Unemployment, and Interest Rates -- Projections of Income -- Data Problems -- Income Shares -- Changes in the Outlook Since August 2007 -- How CBO's Forecast Compares With Others -- Chapter 3: The Spending Outlook -- Mandatory Spending -- Medicare and Medicaid -- Social Security -- Other Income-Security Programs -- Other Federal Retirement and Disability Programs -- Other Mandatory Spending -- What Causes Growth in Mandatory Spending? -- Offsetting Receipts -- Legislation Assumed in the Baseline.