Burned Agricultural Biomass, Air Pollution and Crime

In recent years, agricultural fires intended to clear crop residues account for roughly half as much burned biomass as forest fires. Like other forms of environmental degradation, burned biomass also incurs social costs for society through its contribution to the air pollution. One such cost is the increase in crime. Using the seasonal variation in increase in air pollution --due to increased rice stubble burning-- in the Punjab province of Pakistan, I explore the relationship between air pollution and crime. I combine eight different sources of data and use an instrumental variable approach to estimate the causal impact of air pollution on crime. Air pollution increases both violent and non-violent crimes. A one standard deviation increase in seasonal variation in air pollution increases violent crime by at least 15 percent points. I show that my results for violent crimes in particular are robust to a barrage of robustness checks. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that the cost of increased crime due to air pollution are at least 5 million US dollars. The potential mechanism driving the estimates is the reduction in earnings in the air pollution season for middle aged male individuals. I also show that the reduction in earnings does not seem to be due to the seasonal trends in labor market activity. The results suggest that the social costs of air pollution are much wider than those previously considered. They also have significant implications for developing countries whose economies rely on agriculture