Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching
The synthesis of the dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1989) and the regime-switching model of Hamilton (1989) proposed by Diebold and Rudebusch (1996) potentially encompasses both features of the business cycle identified by Burns and Mitchell (1946): (1) comovement among economic variables through the cycle and (2) nonlinearity in its evolution. However, maximum-likelihood estimation has required approximation. Recent advances in multimove Gibbs sampling methodology open the way to approximation-free inference in such non-Gaussian, nonlinear models. This paper estimates the model for U.S. data and attempts to address three questions: Are both features of the business cycle empirically relevant? Might the implied new index of coincident indicators be a useful one in practice? Do the resulting estimates of regime switches show evidence of duration dependence? The answers to all three would appear to be yes. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Year of publication: |
1998
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Authors: | Kim, Chang-Jin ; Nelson, Charles R. |
Published in: |
The Review of Economics and Statistics. - MIT Press. - Vol. 80.1998, 2, p. 188-201
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Publisher: |
MIT Press |
Saved in:
Online Resource
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